Annotation

Annotation: Due to the structural changes in the educational system of the Russian Federation from the impact of the introduction of foreign standards in the period from 2007 to 2023, the purpose of this work is to carry out a study of changes in the number of graduates in bachelor's, master's and specialty programs during the observation period for further forecasting its changes until 2027. The research methods used in this work are to analyze the change in the number of graduates in bachelor's, master's and specialty programs during the observation period from 2007 to 2023 and to perform modeling based on interval forecasting of this change until 2027. As a result of the work carried out, the dependencies described by the polynomial of the third degree were revealed, changes in the number of graduates over the observed period for three programs caused by the introduction of the Bologna system and the use of a competence-based approach to assess the level of mastering curricula in the education system of the Russian Federation. Among other things, the reasons associated with these innovations have been identified and described, which have an impact on an increase in the number of graduates in some programs and a decrease in others. A trend model was also built and the forecast was verified. The analysis of the changes caused by the introduction of foreign standards, the number of graduates in bachelor's, master's and specialty programs for the observed period from 2007 to 2023, which allowed us to fulfill the forecast of this change until 2027. Starting in 2022, it is predicted with a probability of 90% an increase in the number of specialists by ≈560%, a decrease in the number of bachelors and masters by ≈56% and ≈93%, respectively, by 2027.